China Will Determine Polyester Growth, Price

In the world of polyester production, China is the Big Kahuna.

At the spring meeting of the Synthetic Yarn and Fiber Association, Alasdair Carmichael, a recognized authority in the world of synthetic fibers, told some 150 textiles executives from the southeast just how dominating China can be.

Some 65 percent of all polyester in the world comes from Chinese mills. When it comes to setting prices for polyester fiber, China call the shots. And that’s not going to change, Carmichael insisted. By 2020, China will be making 68 per cent of the world’s polyester fiber. Throw in production from India and southeast Asia, and you get 84 percent of the world’s polyester.

Polyester continues to gain market share, along with cotton which is experiencing slower growth due to limited land and crop competition. Yet the two fibers equal 82 percent of all used in textiles, Carmichael alleged.

Nylon, in contrast, is not enjoying growth mainly because of the decline of the carpet industry.

Carmichael said said that man-made fibers accounted for almost 45 percent of apparel imports in the U.S. Cotton has declined. Higher prices and the loss of two million tons in the marketplace has reduced consumption. But cotton will regain some position, Carmichael predicted, but the climb will be slow because of limited cropland.

Carmichael told the conference participants that demand will grow for polyester with the recovery of the housing and automotive markets. But prices will increase also with the oil market. He reminded the executives that in 2009 the price of crude oil was $39 a barrel.

Carmichael is president of PCI Fibres (Americas) and is vice president of SYFA.  

 

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